Saturday, September 02, 2006
Best in show*
The Mets have had the best record in the Major Leagues for the last few days. They've got the division and therefore the playoffs virtually locked up, but they keep playing to win, and winning.
The Mets are proving me wrong about a couple of things, and I am just so pleased to be wrong in this case.
1. I said on this blog that Carlos Delgado is most likely done -- stick a fork in his career -- but he was just slumping, and has come roaring back, raising his average 20 points and hitting home runs in bunches. He may be bringing himself to a peak just in time for the post season.
2. Shawn Green looks like someone who can make a nice contribution as a 6 or 7 hitter, with timely singles and doubles.
3. Here's the biggy. Ever since I first learned about the importance of "on base percentage" (OBP) (hits plus walks divided by plate appearances)** from reading the wonderful Bill James, I've been of the view that you have to have high OBP to score lots of runs and win lots of games. It stands to reason -- more baserunners correlates to more runs.
It also means that you want your #1 and 2 hitters in the batting order to get on base a lot, so that the power guys hitting 3-4-5 can have runners to drive in. That was the key to the Mets offensive success in their 1986 team that won 108 games.
Well, this year, Jose Reyes has turned himself into arguably the best leadoff man in baseball with a mediocre (for a leadoff hitter) .350 OBP. And, more importantly, the Mets, who lead the NL in runs scored, are a mere 7th in the NL with a mediocre .337 OBP.
This means that the Mets have an extremely efficient offense -- scoring more runs with fewer times on base. How do they do it? With the stuff that baseball oldtimers have always stressed: power and speed. The Mets have been at or near the top in slugging percentage and stolen bases all season, they have good team speed and aggressively take the extra base (something not fully reflected in any stats).
As I said, I'm happy to admit when I'm wrong, at least in this case.
___
*One should almost never explain one's jokes, but for those of you non-baseball fans, "show" is slang for Major Leagues.
**A simplification. Actually, it's H + BB + HBP / AB + BB + HBP.
The Mets are proving me wrong about a couple of things, and I am just so pleased to be wrong in this case.
1. I said on this blog that Carlos Delgado is most likely done -- stick a fork in his career -- but he was just slumping, and has come roaring back, raising his average 20 points and hitting home runs in bunches. He may be bringing himself to a peak just in time for the post season.
2. Shawn Green looks like someone who can make a nice contribution as a 6 or 7 hitter, with timely singles and doubles.
3. Here's the biggy. Ever since I first learned about the importance of "on base percentage" (OBP) (hits plus walks divided by plate appearances)** from reading the wonderful Bill James, I've been of the view that you have to have high OBP to score lots of runs and win lots of games. It stands to reason -- more baserunners correlates to more runs.
It also means that you want your #1 and 2 hitters in the batting order to get on base a lot, so that the power guys hitting 3-4-5 can have runners to drive in. That was the key to the Mets offensive success in their 1986 team that won 108 games.
Well, this year, Jose Reyes has turned himself into arguably the best leadoff man in baseball with a mediocre (for a leadoff hitter) .350 OBP. And, more importantly, the Mets, who lead the NL in runs scored, are a mere 7th in the NL with a mediocre .337 OBP.
This means that the Mets have an extremely efficient offense -- scoring more runs with fewer times on base. How do they do it? With the stuff that baseball oldtimers have always stressed: power and speed. The Mets have been at or near the top in slugging percentage and stolen bases all season, they have good team speed and aggressively take the extra base (something not fully reflected in any stats).
As I said, I'm happy to admit when I'm wrong, at least in this case.
___
*One should almost never explain one's jokes, but for those of you non-baseball fans, "show" is slang for Major Leagues.
**A simplification. Actually, it's H + BB + HBP / AB + BB + HBP.
Comments:
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Two thoughts ...
1. Do you read the Baseball Crank? (http://baseballcrank.com/) You may not like this politics, but 60% or so of the posts relate to baseball, and there is an easy way to filter out the politics. His baseball posts are analytical/numerical, and he loves Bill James.
2. This is clearly an anomaly, but an interesting one. The speed of the 1/2 hitters and the efficiency of the 3/4/5 hitters overcome the reduced opportunities from the 1/2 hitters lower OBP. It shows that there is no magic formula!
Take care.
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1. Do you read the Baseball Crank? (http://baseballcrank.com/) You may not like this politics, but 60% or so of the posts relate to baseball, and there is an easy way to filter out the politics. His baseball posts are analytical/numerical, and he loves Bill James.
2. This is clearly an anomaly, but an interesting one. The speed of the 1/2 hitters and the efficiency of the 3/4/5 hitters overcome the reduced opportunities from the 1/2 hitters lower OBP. It shows that there is no magic formula!
Take care.
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